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As we prepare for the 2026 H-1B cap season, employers should be aware of important updates to the selection process that will impact strategy and the likelihood of selection. Below is a summary of the key changes to the H-1B cap selection process and considerations for registration.
What's New with the H-1B Lottery?
- Random lottery replaced with a wage-weighted selection system.
Starting this cap season, USCIS will no longer run a purely random lottery. Instead, registrations will be entered into a weighted selection pool where the number of lottery entries a beneficiary receives is tied to the prevailing wage level offered for the role.
- Wage Level IV (leadership/expert) → 4 entries
- Wage Level III (senior) → 3 entries
- Wage Level II (fully qualified) → 2 entries
- Wage Level I (entry level) → 1 entry
This gives more senior candidates with higher wages significantly improved odds of being selected in the cap process.
Under the new weighted selection, U.S. DHS estimates that the probability of being selected to file a H-1B cap-subject petition for a unique beneficiary will be 15.29 percent for level I, 30.58 percent for level II, 45.87 percent for level III, and 61.16 percent for level IV.
- Additional registration data requirements.
Employers must now provide more detailed information at the initial registration stage, including:
- Offered wage/salary;
- Applicable DOL prevailing wage level;
- Applicable DOL standard occupational code (SOC), and
- Work location(s).
This is an operational shift because choices made at the time of registration will influence likelihood of selection. It also means employers will need to provide more details about the job to their attorneys at the filing stage than in previous years to properly determine the applicable wage level.
- The number of H-1B cap visas remains unchanged.
There will still only be 85,000 total H-1B visa numbers this year: 65,000 regular cap visas plus 20,000 additional U.S. master's degree exemption visas. In the two-stage lottery process, USCIS conducts an initial lottery for all beneficiaries for a chance to win one of the 65,000 regular cap visas, and then USCIS conducts a second lottery for beneficiaries with a U.S. master's or higher degree for a chance to win one of the extra 20,000 H-1B visas.
- U.S. master's degree advantages still apply.
This means that candidates with a U.S. master's or higher degree will have a compounded advantage under the new weighted selection process. For example, beneficiaries who hold a U.S. master's degree sponsored for a proposed role with requirements consistent with the DOL Level IV wage will have their registration entered into the regular H-1B cap pool four times. If they are not selected, they will then have their registration entered into the advanced degree cap pool four times.
- The lottery should still occur during the month of March.
We anticipate that the lottery will be held over a two- to three-week period starting the first or second week of March with the government notifying lottery winners by the end of March.
Practical Considerations for Employers
- Wage strategy matters more than ever: Offering a competitive wage could materially improve odds of selection.
- Earlier planning is critical: We must confirm job details and compensation early because registrations require wage level and occupational codes up front.
- All wage levels are still eligible: Entry and mid-level roles can still enter the lottery — though their statistical chance of selection is lower relative to higher-wage roles.
- Potential legal updates: While the rule is scheduled to take effect February 27, 2026, regulatory or legal developments could influence the implementation of the weighted selection rule. For example, if litigation challenging the new selection rule ensues, a court could block the rule from going into effect this year. We are actively monitoring the situation and will update you about any developments.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
