The Home Office's Settlement Reforms: Confirmation That Major Change Is Now Coming

After my most recent article on this topic, it was already clear that the settlement rules were poised for a significant overhaul. Now we have confirmation from the Government itself: the change is no longer theoretical — it is happening, and it will reshape the path to Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) for almost everyone who has not yet secured their permanent status.

The Home Office has released A Fairer Pathway to Settlement (Command Paper CP 1448, November 2025), setting out a move to an "earned settlement" model and confirming publicly that the new framework will apply to all those in the UK who have not already been granted ILR when the new rules come into force.

This single confirmation is arguably the most impactful change to the immigration landscape in over a decade.

Key Points (Quick Summary)

• The Home Office published a Command Paper (CP 1448) confirming a shift to an "earned settlement" model.
• The new framework will apply to everyone who has not yet been granted Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR).
• The standard ILR route will increase from 5 years to a 10-year baseline for most categories.
• Positive contributions (e.g., high earnings) can reduce the period, while negative actions (e.g., claiming public funds) can extend it.
• Transitional protections are not guaranteed; those eligible now should apply immediately.

The Key Confirmation: New Rules Apply to Anyone Who Has Not Yet Obtained ILR

The Home Secretary states clearly:

"We propose to apply these changes to everyone in the country today who has not already received indefinite leave to remain."

This means:

• Only individuals who already hold ILR on the implementation date are guaranteed protection.
• Being close to qualifying does not protect you.

Having an ILR application in progress may or may not be protected — and this depends entirely on the transitional arrangements that the Government will decide after the consultation.

Will applications submitted before the rule change be safe?

The document strongly implies that applications decided before the new rules take effect will fall under the current rules, as only those who have already been granted ILR are fully protected.

The consultation openly asks whether transitional arrangements should exist at all — meaning there is a real possibility that:

• Only those with ILR granted are protected
• Those under the EUSS scheme would not be affected
• Those with British children will have a different system

For this reason, those eligible now should apply as soon as possible to maximise the likelihood of receiving a decision before the system changes.

What Is Changing?

1. A Standard 10-Year Route for Most Migrants

The current 5-year route will be replaced with a 10-year baseline for most categories.

2. The "Earned Settlement" Model: Reductions and Penalties

Positive contributions (e.g., high earnings, advanced English, volunteering) may reduce the period, while negative indicators (e.g., claiming public funds, overstaying, entering illegally) may extend it.

Possible Reductions

• Advanced English at C1 level: ILR after 9 years
• Earnings above £50,270pa for 3 years: ILR after 5 years
• Earnings above £125,140pa for 3 years: ILR after 3 years
• Working in certain public service roles: ILR after 5 years
• Community volunteering: ILR after 5 – 7 years

It's also possible to mix and match, i.e. have Advanced english and volunteer to reduce your time further (hence instead of 10 years it would be possible to apply for ILR after 6 years in this example.

Possible Penalties

• Claiming public funds for less than 12 months: an additional 5 years
• Claiming public funds for more than 12 months: an additional 10 years
• Entering illegally, using a visitor visa improperly, or overstaying by 6 months: up to 20 years

Hence, an individual may have to wait 30 years if they have overstayed a visa.

3. Minimum Earnings Requirement

Applicants must show earnings above £12,570 for 3–5 years, unless exempt.

4. Possible "No Recourse to Public Funds" Condition at ILR

Settlement may no longer provide access to benefits; this could be reserved for British citizens.

5. Possible 15-Year Route for RQF 3–5 Roles

Care workers, senior care workers and other medium-skilled roles may face a 15-year route, reflecting the Government's fiscal and demographic concerns.

Is This Fair to the Health & Care Workforce?

Many feel this retrospective tightening is unfair, particularly for those in health and social care who supported the UK during the pandemic, with many reminding us that those are "the people we clapped for".

However, the Home Office reiterates its long-standing position: settlement is a privilege, not a right — and must be earned.

OBR data and long-term modelling underpin the proposed 15-year route and wider tightening.

Why the Home Office Says the Reforms Are Needed

The Command Paper highlights:

• Forecasted 1.6 million settlement grants between 2026–2030
• A peak of around 450,000 in 2028
• Significant arrival surges from 2021–2024
• High dependency ratios among Health & Care visa holders
• OBR modelling shows that low-wage roles have a long-term negative net fiscal contribution compared to high wage roles which has a long-term positive net fiscal contribution

What Should Migrants and Employers Do Now?

Migrants

• Apply for ILR immediately if eligible under current rules.
• Do not delay, as transitional protections are unknown.
• Ensure documentation is fully compliant to avoid delays.

Employers

• Review workforce planning immediately.
• Prepare for higher turnover risks in affected sectors.
• Identify staff who might qualify for accelerated settlement under contribution-based reductions.

Conclusion

The Government has confirmed that settlement is about to undergo the most radical reform in a generation. Crucially:

• Only those with ILR already granted will be guaranteed protection.
• Those applying before the rule change may still be protected — but this depends entirely on transitional arrangements, which the consultation makes clear could be limited or even non-existent.
• Some Healthcare and care workers face particularly significant implications.

As the Home Office reiterates, settlement will no longer be an entitlement after five years; it will be earned, and for many, earned over a much longer period.

WestBridge Business Immigration will continue to monitor developments and guide clients through both the existing system and the forthcoming changes.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.