P2N0 - Edition 38 - News And Views On The Drive Towards Net-Zero GHG Emissions

Welcome to Edition 38 of P2N0 covering the drive to avoid, reduce and remove greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to progress to net-zero GHG emissions (NZE).

P2N0 covers significant news items globally, reporting on them in short form, focusing on policy settings and legal and project developments and trends.

This Edition 38 covers the outcomes arising from COP 30 which took place between November 10, 2025, and November 21, 2025. Edition 39 will cover the period from November 22, 2025, to December 12, 2025.

As previously, P2N0 will not cover news items about M&A activity, or that are negative.

Access previous editions of P2N0 at bakerbotts.com.

KEY NEWS ITEMS ARISING FROM COP 30

• Background to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

Have you ever wondered why each communique of decisions from each Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) starts with the same (or similar) paragraph?

The answer is that Article 1 of the Charter of the United Nations provides for action by the United Nations (UN) in respect of matters of common concern for all nations. Articles 10, 11 and 13 of the Charter outline the scope of the role and authority of the General Assembly of the United Nations, including international cooperation.

The diagram at the end of this Edition 38 of P2N0 provides a timeline recognizing the role that the UN has played in the recognition of climate change, and the international cooperation the UN has promoted.

The ever-present theme since the late 1960s has been the coming together of countries to cooperate to address the common concern of environmental degradation, and, since 1988, climate change.

While some of the headlines before, during and after COP 30 may have been negative, the recognition of the need for international cooperation is ever stronger, and the need to take account for the circumstances of countries has been emphasised. This is a good thing, if countries act on it.

• Absence makes the heart grow fonder: There was comment about the "absence" of the world's three largest GHG emitters of GHG emissions, China, India and the US for COP 30.

This may grab the attention of some readers, but in the context of that which is happening in each of those countries, they all continue to make progress, more progress than many countries in attendance at COP 30.

China continues to make world-leading progress in the roll-out of renewable energy. India continues to make progress at a great rate. While the US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, and domestic policy settings have changed, the US economy continues to develop and to deploy renewable electrical energy.

• Thirtieth Conference of the Parties United Nations Convention on Climate Change (COP 30) serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement:

The hope and expectation before COP 30 (Before):

• Ahead of COP 30, Edition 37 of P2N0 identified the following three areas as matters of focus:
  • 2035 national determined contributions (NDC 3.0)¹ and the impact on climate change if NDC 3.0s are implemented in accordance with their terms (1.5OC ambition), and, in this context, among other things, the "transition away" from fossil fuels.

• National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) with Parties under the Paris Agreement required³, as appropriate, to have NAPs. While Parties have NAPs, the implementation of those NAPs may be regarded as limited. It was expected (and hoped) that COP 30 would provide impetus from planning to implementation.

For these purposes, it was expected that the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) would be a key agenda item at COP 30: the GGA is intended to guide progress globally, providing a clear or clearer basis for planning and implementation.

• The provision of climate finance by developed countries under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement (Finance).

• Immediately before COP 30, the President of COP 30, Mr Andre Correa do Lago, having taken the temperature, indicated that the agenda at COP 30 would focus on consultation in respect of:
  • 5OC ambition with the intention to progress to implementation of NDCs and NAPs, and to imbue a revised sense of urgency to pursue efforts to limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5OC compared to pre-industrial times⁵, to move from The What to The How, and to act on The How. Also, on the agenda was GHG emissions reporting under Article 13⁶;
  • Finance with the intention to achieve consensus around the provision of finance. Also, with the intention to develop consensus and timelines for the provision of capacity building and technology transfer to allow developing countries to achieve their NDC 3.0s, and to progress the operationalisation of the cooperative approaches provided for in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, i.e., the promotion of the transfer of international transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOS) between countries under Article 6.2 and to provide for the creation of emission units (carbon credits) under Article 6.4; and
  • "Trade Measures" with the intention of seeking convergence on avoiding trade-related distortions and ensuring fairness, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation regulation introduced by the European Union (EU), intended to avoid carbon leakage (in the case of CBAM) and foreclosing on the EU market for products not consistent with the avoidance deforestation⁷.

This is not about climate change (these measures are intended to address climate change), it is a political matter, and a geopolitical matter.

Other than the transition from fossil fuels, this was the most contentious matter at COP 30, with current geopolitical dynamics more obviously on display than COPs in recent times.

• In summary the:
  • key agenda items at COP 30 were:
    • 5OC ambition (measured based on implementation of NDC 3.0s), the Reduction Gap and the effect of the Reduction Gap on achieving the Article 2.1(a) objectives, accounting for the achievement of NDC 3.0s using common and transparent accounting methodologies and reporting; and
    • Finance and the Funding Gap.

The balance of this Edition 38 of P2N0 considers these matters.

• The key challenge at COP 30 was to galvanise Parties to increased ambition, and to manage the current geopolitical dynamics, including to manage progress to transition away from fossil fuels and whether to address "Trade Measures", and, if so, how.

The outcomes from, and the hope and expectation after, COP 30:

• In closing COP 30, the United Nations Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell stated:

"We knew this COP would take place in stormy political waters. Denial, division and geopolitics has dealt international cooperation some heavy blows this year. But friends. COP 30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a liveable planet, with a firm resolve to keep 1.5OC within reach. I'm not saying we're winning the climate fight. But we are undeniably still in it, and we are fighting back. Here in Belém, nations chose solidarity, science, and economic common sense".

Mr Stiell stressed that while progress has been made, the rate of progress in reducing GHG emissions needs to increase, to mitigate, and the rate of investment to address the consequence of climate change, to adapt, "must increase dramatically to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach"⁸.

• NDC 3.0s: Ahead of COP 30, the NDC Synthesis Report, was released. The Report illustrated both the progress made and the progress that needs to be made. As reported previously, as of September 30, 2025, 64 Countries had submitted their NDC 3.0s, around 30% of countries that are parties to the Paris Agreement. There are many implications of this, critically, given the substance of the Paris Agreement, that makes it difficult to assess progress to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

By the start of COP 30, 122 Parties had submitted their NDC 3.0s, and this is recognized in the COP 30 Decision:

"Commends the 122 Parties that have communicated their new nationally determined contributions for the next policy cycle of the Paris Agreement and urges Parties that have not yet communicated a new nationally determined contribution to do so as soon as possible".

• NDCs and addressing climate change: The July 2025 International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion on Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change indicated that Parties to the Paris Agreement do not have an obligation to achieve their NDCs, rather the NDCs of Parties, taken together, are intended to achieve the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement. This is the best way to think of the 1.5OC ambition – it is a common and share ambition, requiring all Parties to do more.

The Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice, and the text of the Paris Agreement, make it clear that, the achievement of the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement requires cooperation through the implementation of NDCs (The What). The What is often lost in the debate about the how (the How) (and the Who).

The stated intention of the COP 30 was to concentrate on The How. What works is known and should continue to be the focus of decarbonization and implementation of NDC 3.0 – renewable energy and increased electrification of activities using renewable energy works. This is not to discount other initiatives to avoid, reduce and remove GHG emissions, but renewable energy and electrification should be the focus.

• 5OC ambition: The COP 30 Decision places emphasis on the failure in achieving the ambition to limit the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5OC, and the consequences:

"Recalling with concern that the pre-2020 gaps in both mitigation ambition and implementation by developed country Parties and that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had previously indicated that developed countries must reduce emissions by 25– 40 per cent below the 1990 level by 2020, which was not achieved,

Also recalling with concern that the carbon budget consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal is now small and being rapidly depleted and acknowledges that historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50 per cent probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C,

Recalling that, despite progress, global greenhouse gas emissions trajectories are not yet in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal, and that there is a rapidly narrowing window for raising ambition and implementing existing commitments in order to achieve it,

Recognizing that limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050,"

• What is the most likely outcome based on current NDC 3.0s:

Paragraphs 6, 7 and 8 of the COP 30 Decision state:

"Reaffirms the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that achieving this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

Underscores that the risks and impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5OC compared with 2OC and reiterates its resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C to limit both the magnitude and the duration of any temperature overshoot, and to close adaptation gaps;

Acknowledges that significant collective progress towards the Paris Agreement temperature goal has been made, from an expected global temperature increase of more than 4OC according to some projections prior to the adoption of the Agreement to an increase in the range of 2.3OC-2.5OC and a bending of the emission curve based on the full implementation of the latest nationally determined contributions, which noting that this is not sufficient to achieve the temperature goal;"

• Assessing and addressing current modelling:

While there are many perspectives on the increase in average global temperatures with the most positive model an increase of somewhere between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels, most models predict an increase of somewhere between 2.2OC-2.8OC.

Given these perspectives, the COP 30 Decision sounds the alarm as follows:

"Resolves to unite efforts in a global mutirão against climate change, calling on all actors to work together to [accelerate significantly] and scale up climate action worldwide, as part of a global mobilization towards significantly enhancing international cooperation and implementation during this critical decade, with a view to keeping 1.5 °C within reach, building resilience and mobilizing finance, technology and capacity-building, in accordance with the principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement;" (Paragraph 29)

"Decides, in responding to urgency, gaps and challenges, accelerating implementation, solidarity and international cooperation, to launch the Global Implementation Accelerator, as a cooperative, facilitative and voluntary initiative under the guidance of the Presidencies of the seventh and eighth sessions (November 2026) of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement to accelerate implementation across all actors to keep 1.5 °C within reach and supporting countries in implementing their nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans taking into account the decisions.... , such as the United Arab Emirates Consensus, requests the Presidencies to present a report summarizing their work in this regard to the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement at its eighth session, invites the Presidencies to conduct open and inclusive information sessions held in conjunction with the sixty-fourth (June 2026) and sixty-fifth (November 2026) sessions of the subsidiary bodies, and decides to exchange experiences and views on related matters at a high-level event in 2026;" (Paragraph 41)

Also decides to launch, under the guidance of the Presidencies of the sixth, seventh and eighth sessions of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, the "Belém Mission to 1.5", aimed at enabling ambition and implementation of nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans, to reflect on accelerating implementation, international cooperation and investment in nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans across mitigation and adaptation, and requests those Presidencies to produce a report summarizing the work as they conclude the work by the eighth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement." (Paragraph 42)

These decisions represent and convey a clear sense of concern, and the need for each Party to the Party to the Paris Agreement to do more to address, urgently, the achievement of the 1.5OC ambition.

It is clear that mitigation of climate change is off-track at the moment, and that, together, NDCs are not ambitious enough to achieve the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement.

These perspectives emphasise the ever-increasing importance of adaptation and finance to give effect to adaptation.

• NAPs and GGA:

The COP 30 Decision states:

"Commends the 71 Parties that have submitted national adaptation plans, policies and planning processes, which includes 60 developing country Parties that have submitted a national adaptation plan, and calls upon Parties that have not yet done so to do so by the end of 2025 and also calls upon all Parties to progress in implementing them by 2030;"

In respect of NAPs, progress was made at COP 30. The decision on the NAP assessment was adopted. This will allow a more coherent and structured approach of understanding the need for adaptation, to plan for it, and to implement it.

In respect of the GGA, there was progress, and yet not as much progress as there appeared that there might be. Edition 37 of P2N0 noted the hope of reporting on progress on the GGA after COP 30. For the author, it was a disappointment that COP 30 did not result in a coherent set of indicators as part of an agreed GGA. It would seem that work will continue on the indicators, with possible progress in 2026, but more likely in 2027.

• Finance:

In respect of Finance, there was some progress, indeed the most well-defined of progress. For the President of COP 30, this was clearly a priority and aligned with the expectations ahead of COP 30. As ever, it is apparent that a number of countries were hoping for more.

The COP 30 Decision states (at paragraphs 45 to 48):

"Reaffirms that developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations under the Convention and that other Parties are encouraged to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily;

Also reaffirms the long-term goal of making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development;

Further reaffirms the call on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035, takes note of the "Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T" and welcomes the efforts undertaken by the Presidencies of the twenty-ninth and thirtieth sessions of the Conference of the Parties in fulfilling their mandate;

Decides [to advance urgently] actions to enable the scaling up of financing for developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035 and emphasizes the urgent need to remain on a pathway towards the goal of mobilizing at least USD 300 billion for developing country Parties per year by 2035 for climate action, with developed country Parties taking the lead;" (emphasis added).

• There is more news ...

As had been hoped the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) was operationalised at COP 30. This was facilitated at COP 30 by the launch of the process under which funding requests may be made. It is understood that as of June 30,2025, a total of https://www.frld.org/pledges USD 788.80 million has been pledged to the FRLD.

In addition, to the news items arising from COP 30 covered in the Edition 38 of P2N0 and COP 30 Decision, there is an Outcomes Report, Global Climate Action Agenda at COP 30 that provides coverage of the many outcomes from COP 30.

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Note from the author:

Early on in my legal career the UN General Assembly recognised climate change as a common concern for the purposes of the UN Charter. Within four years, the Rio Convention resulted in the Big Three Climate Conventions. As a concerned citizen, not an eco-warrior, I have long been an avid writer and presenter providing a perspective for working across all means of achieving avoidance, reduction and removal of GHG emissions, and, yes, working to develop fossil fuel and mining and resources projects (coal, natural gas and LNG, oil and refining projects).

When the Paris Agreement was agreed on December 12, 2015 (coming into effect on November 4, 2016), it provided a basis for cooperation among the Parties to it, and it provided a common objective. Critically, the Paris Agreement recognized that Parties were to commit to nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and to achieve them, they each had to implement domestic policies and legislation and regulation. Considerable progress has been made since 2016.

Many countries had established and implemented domestic policies and legislation and regulation well-before the Paris Agreement, and were making progress to avoid, reduce and remove GHG emissions. Many countries will achieve their NDCs and net-zero GHG emissions well ahead of schedule. In short, The How is known, and has been known for quite some time: the development and deployment of renewable electrical energy and increased electrification is the most effective solution, with other solutions needed across agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) and difficult to decarbonize sectors.

There was a sense before COP 30 that the focus would be on The How, and to some extent this proved to be the case. The challenge with The How remains affordability and competing calls on funding. Mr Bill Gates touched on this in his essay entitled https://www.gatesnotes.com/home/home-page-topic/reader/three-tough-truths-about-climate Three tough truths about climate change, recognising that great progress has been made, but funding of climate change cannot be at the expense of health and welfare and economic development.

In terms of The How, the view of the author is that greater cooperation is needed to achieve cross-border transmission of renewable electrical energy and the development of carbon storage projects.

Footnotes

1. NDC 3.0s frame the targets of Parties to the Paris Agreement to avoid, reduce and remove GHG emissions from the climate system through the next ten years.

2. Article 3 of the Paris Agreement provides: "As nationally determined contributions to the response to climate change, all Parties are to undertake and to communicate ambitious efforts as defined in Articles 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 with a view to achieving the purpose of this Agreement as set out in Article 2. The efforts of all Parties will represent a progression over time, while recognizing the need to support developing country Parties for the effective implementation of this Agreement". Article 4.2 provides "Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with an aim of achieving the objectives of this Agreement. Article 4.3 provides that: "Each Party's successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party's then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances" .

3. Article 7, paragraph 10 of the Paris Agreement provides: "Each Party should, as appropriate, submit and update periodically an adaptation communication, which may include its priorities, implementation and support needs, plans and actions, without creating any additional burden for developing country Parties."

4. These obligations are: (a) for Parties to adopt measures with a view to mitigate and to adapt to climate change; (b) for developed countries to lead in combating climate change by limiting their GHG emissions and enhancing their sinks and reservoirs; and (c) for Parties to cooperate with each other to achieve the objectives of the UNFCCC, detailed in Article 2.

5. By way of reminder, Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement provides for "Holding the increase in the global average temperatures to well below 2OC above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5OC ..."

6. Article 13 provides for an enhanced transparency framework for action and support.

7. It is fair to say that COP 30 was not the most appropriate forum for these matters to be aired, and yet, aired they were. In passing, it is noted that the objective of these measures is to address climate change through levelling the playing field consistent with the price on carbon in the EU and to discourage deforestation by foreclosing on the sale of products in the EU. The debate continues about whether the UNFCCC has any role to play in respect of policy settings that have extraterritorial effect: for what it is worth, the view of the author is that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) forum does not offer a route for countries impacted adversely by CBAM and that the UNFCCC should not.

8. By way of reminder, Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement provides for "Holding the increase in the global average temperatures to well below 2OC above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5OC ...".

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