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For 14 years, AlixPartners has surveyed U.S. consumers and North American logistics, transportation, and supply chain executives to track the forces reshaping e-commerce delivery.
Trade disruptions, tariff pressures, and shifting sourcing patterns are rippling through supply chains while consumers, insulated from most of that complexity, are raising their expectations for what a delivery experience should look like. The result is a sector under pressure from both ends: costs rising upstream, tolerance shrinking downstream.
AlixPartners conducts this research every year to surface the specific shifts - in consumer behavior, executive priorities, and operational strategy - that determine which companies stay ahead of the curve and which fall behind it.
2026 Survey Findings
The 2026 report finds an industry at an inflection point: consumer expectations have reset (again). Free delivery is now assumed in 2.6 days, not the 3.5 that was the norm for the last 5 years. Late deliveries now have the potential to put 20% of a retailer's business at risk. And AI is no longer a pilot project, it is becoming the operational backbone of last-mile performance.
For retailers, carriers, and investors in the sector, the question is no longer whether to act. It is whether the actions underway are the right ones, at the right scale, and fast enough.
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68%
of executives say improving ETA accuracy and reliability is their No. 1 AI use-case priority
83%
of executives say their per-package costs have increased year over year
40%
What this means for you
For retailers
Free, fast, accurate delivery and friction-free returns are now table stakes, not differentiators. The retailers gaining ground are those investing in carrier diversification, network optimization, and proactive delay communications. If your fulfillment model was designed for a 3.5-day world, it may need an update.
For carriers
Reliability has overtaken cost as the primary reason shippers choose a last-mile partner. Carriers that can demonstrate consistent on-time performance, communicate proactively, and support AI-enabled ETA accuracy will attract and retain the diversifying shipper base. Those that cannot will find volume shifting to alternatives.
For investors
Operators with modern carrier diversification strategies, AI-integrated operations, and strong returns infrastructure are compounding their advantages. The survey data points clearly to where the value creation levers are, and where the performance gaps remain. Understanding the consumer expectation curve is essential to any sector investment or operational improvement thesis.
of shippers say reducing returns is a top priority
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