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U.S. consumers continue to spend, but resilience is increasingly strained. Real wage gains and essential-driven demand are sustaining near-term activity, even as sentiment weakens and household balance sheets come under pressure from record debt, rising delinquencies, and renewed energy-driven inflation risks. At the same time, a cooling labor market, geopolitical instability, and resurgent supply chain costs are tightening conditions for businesses. As policy uncertainty and cost volatility rise, both consumers and companies are navigating a more fragile, risk-laden economic environment heading deeper into 2026.
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