Pabian Law Client Alert: Demand For Winter-Season H-2B Visas (2026-2027 Season)

Pabian Law Clients and Friends,

As a follow-up to the Client Alert (linked) that we sent this past Monday, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced today that it received 51,158 worker applications for October 1, 2026 start dates. As a reminder, under H-2B visa regulations, there are 33,000 total worker applications available for start dates between October 1^st and March 31^st. Clearly, the demand continues to be much higher than the supply.

This year’s October 1^st filings represent the largest number of worker positions ever filed for winter-season start dates (October 1^st-March 31^st start dates). Additionally, this number represents an increase of almost 8% from the previous year. The charts below shows the increase in applications for October 1^st start dates over the past 6 years:

When do we predict the winter-season cap will be reached?

We have been holding countless webinars and communicating with our winter-season clients regarding the risks surrounding the cap since winter-season demand started ballooning over the past several years. We have also been preaching the value of data and regularly sharing strategies based on historical information with clients. We have been encouraging all winter-season organizations, and especially those with late-October or November start dates, to explore in-country recruiting as a way to avoid any potential cap risks. Although this increase in demand is higher than we hoped, it confirms that our projections were accurate.

It is very difficult to predict when exactly the H-2B cap will be hit and, therefore, which start dates will fall before and after the cut-off. The reason why is that it is impossible to know how many employers will request out-of-country, cap-subject workers, as opposed to in-country workers who aren’t counted toward the cap. However, here is our best estimate regarding impacts (based on H-2B employment start date):

• October 1^st employers: As mentioned in Monday’s Client Alert, the government split October 1^st cases into two groupings (Group A and Group B). We believe that all Group A lottery result petitions will make it in under the H-2B visa cap and will have the opportunity to recruit out-of-country workers. However, with 16,167 worker applications comprising Group B, a significant amount of the Group B allotment was used up. As a result, we do believe that there is a very high likelihood of the out-of-country H-2B visa cap being reached before all Group B lottery assignment petitions can be filed with U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services (USCIS). Unfortunately, we will not know where in the Group B “pile” petitions are sitting, so until we start receiving Notices of Acceptance for Group B lottery assignments, we will be unable to advise clients with those lottery results of the likelihood of them being able to recruit out-of-country workers. In short, if you are an October 1^st employer hoping to hire out-of-country workers, you should be able to continue with your plans if you have a Group A assignment and we are still a few weeks away from being able to accurately advise if you have a Group B assignment. 
• Early-October employers (after 10/1 but before 10/15): We believe that this group is at significant risk of missing the cap. The almost 8% increase in worker petitions from last year to this year is very similar to the 7% increase that we saw last year. Based on when the cap was reached last year, as well as other data that we have collected, we expect all post-October 1^st start dates to be impacted. Therefore, if you originally planned to hire out-of-country workers, we encourage you to explore the possibility of recruiting in-country workers as a backup plan as soon as possible.
• October 15^th employers: Based on the above, we think mid-October employers likely to miss the cap. There is a small chance to make the cap, but we would not recommend relying on this. Therefore, in-country recruiting should be your primary plan.
• Late-October employers (after 10/15 and later): This group will almost certainly miss the cap. As we have been predicting since last year, post October 1^st and later start date employers must rely exclusively on in-country recruiting for H-2B workers going forward.

How should you proceed with winter-season recruiting?

Pabian Law clients, please join us for our upcoming client-only Pabian Law Town Hall Webinar about the winter-season lottery and cap for more of a discussion on the contents of this email update. Details are below:

• Making sense of the H-2B Visa Lottery
  • Monday, July 13^th at 2:00pm EST
  • Complimentary, and only open to active Pabian Law clients
  • Registration information was already sent to Pabian Law clients. If you are an active Pabian Law client and would like to join, please email me and I will resend you the registration link.