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In the article "Why Mobile May Need More Spectrum Notwithstanding the Decline in Data Traffic Growth" published in the Global Telecom Policy Research Network (GTPRN) 2026 Newsletter, Senior Managing Director Richard Marsden addresses the observed decline in mobile spectrum prices in the 5G era reported in the first edition of the "NERA Spectrum Report" and explores some of the factors that could drive future prices as we approach 6G allocation. He argues a decline in anticipated mobile data traffic growth has likely contributed to falling spectrum values, but it is far from certain that this trend will continue. The key driver of future mobile traffic growth is likely the extent to which users substitute mobile for fixed connections, rather than new sources of data consumption. The key driver of global spectrum prices will be whether the supply of spectrum keeps up with mobile traffic expansion.
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