- with readers working within the Consumer Industries industries
AI will weaponize antitrust. AI markets have high fixed costs, winner-take-all dynamics, platform leverage, bundling power, and data lock-in. These dynamics predict concentration. And market concentration is an accelerant for antitrust litigation—both private and government. We saw it with IBM, Microsoft, and the telecom wars.
Private actions will move faster than government enforcers—not because they are necessarily stronger on the merits, but because they are less constrained by politics and bandwidth. A well-timed complaint can slow a rival's rollout, trigger regulatory scrutiny, and create settlement leverage. When markets tip quickly, the losers litigate.
In an AI arms race, companies will lobby regulators to block rivals' acquisitions; challenge the integration of AI into dominant platforms as unlawful tying or bundling; and claim exclusive data access is anticompetitive. The theories will be familiar: monopoly leveraging, tying, exclusive dealing. Someone will revive essential facilities.
Having lived through Microsoft and telecom wars, I can say with confidence that when markets concentrate around essential infrastructure, antitrust becomes a strategic front. The venue changes; competition does not.
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